Although still down 45% from December’s high, shares of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) have shown surprising strength in recent weeks. The stock closed at $268 on Tuesday night, and while it’s still a long way off its former peak, it hasn’t set a new low in nearly three weeks. That alone is a notable shift in character for what had been one of the market’s most consistently sold-off names over the past quarter.
Whether this marks the beginning of a broader recovery or just a pause in the downtrend remains to be seen, but one thing is clear - Tesla is at a pivotal moment. Earnings are due at the end of April, and before then, investors will get a key data point in the form of delivery numbers due later today (Wednesday). This update could either reinforce bearish narratives or ignite a fresh rally, depending on how it lands.
Why Delivery Numbers Matter So Much Right Now
Tesla remains one of the most polarizing names in the market. A large part of that is down to Elon Musk, whose increasingly political and controversial presence has become a lightning rod for both loyal fans and sharp critics. But underneath the noise is a company with real operational questions, especially around demand.
Headlines about global protests at Tesla dealerships and a reported spike in trade-ins have raised alarm bells. A report from France noted Tesla sales dropped 37% in March, and similar patterns are emerging across parts of Europe and China. These aren’t one-off blips - they’re signs that Tesla’s brand is under growing pressure at exactly the time when global EV competition is heating up.
That’s what makes Wednesday’s delivery update so critical. If the numbers disappoint, expect the bears to pile on. However, if Tesla manages to outperform expectations, sentiment could shift quickly. After losing more than half its value in three months, the bar for a “better than feared” reaction may not be that high.
The Bear Case: Wells Fargo Doubles Down
Wells Fargo is one of the more forceful voices on the bearish side. On Tuesday, the firm reiterated its Underweight rating and slashed its price target to $130, implying a more than 50% downside from current levels.
Their analyst, Colin Langan, warned that EV adoption in the US and EU appears to be flattening while Chinese competitors continue to gain market share. He also flagged the potential loss of a $7,500 tax credit as another headwind later this year. In his view, Tesla has few levers left to pull that would meaningfully boost volumes in the short term.
Langan was also skeptical about the upcoming Cybercab launch in Austin, citing limited unsupervised testing and safety concerns around Tesla’s vision-only autonomous technology. His takeaway? Anything short of a fully deployed, paying ride-hailing fleet by June would likely be seen as disappointing.
It’s a bearish outlook that underscores the pressure Tesla is under to deliver something impressive soon.
The Bull Case: Analysts Still See Serious Upside
[content-module:Forecast|NASDAQ:TSLA]On the other side of the spectrum, though, several analysts continue to back Tesla as a long-term winner. On Monday, Stifel Nicolaus reiterated its Buy rating and maintained a $455 price target, while Wedbush stuck to its Outperform rating last week with a price target of $550. These targets imply a potential upside of 70% and 105%, respectively, from Tuesday’s close.
These bulls argue that most of the bad news is already priced in. They point to Tesla’s ongoing innovation pipeline, including the upcoming sub-$35,000 model and longer-term ambitions around AI-driven autonomy. If the company can start delivering on those themes again, the stock’s comeback could have serious legs.
Stifel and Wedbush are also betting that Tesla’s next few quarters will feature better margin control and improved volume growth as the global EV market stabilizes. Whether that proves true will likely depend heavily on this quarter’s delivery numbers and the next earnings report.
Whether you’re a believer or a skeptic, one thing is certain - a move is coming. If delivery numbers exceed expectations, Tesla could reclaim its momentum and start challenging higher resistance levels again. But if the report misses, it could re-open the trapdoor that the bulls have only just managed to close.
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