What Happened?
Shares of school bus company Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) jumped 5.2% in the afternoon session after the broader market rebounded from a tech-driven sell-off, with investors taking the opportunity to buy stocks at lower prices.
This rally was fueled by a recovery in technology stocks and a significant bounce in Bitcoin, which stabilized after losing over half its value from its October peak. Investor sentiment was also lifted by a surprising improvement in U.S. consumer sentiment and the realization that massive AI-related capital expenditure, such as Amazon's planned $200 billion, directly benefits chipmakers like Nvidia and Broadcom. These "pick-and-shovel" winners jumped as much as 7%, helping the S&P 500 edge back into positive territory for 2026. The highlight of the day was the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which surged and crossed the historic 50,000 threshold for the first time.
The shares closed the day at $59.22, up 6.6% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Blue Bird’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 14 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 1 day ago when the stock gained 14.5% on the news that the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that surpassed analyst expectations on profit and provided an upbeat full-year profit forecast.
The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.00, comfortably beating the anticipated $0.80. Revenue for the quarter also slightly exceeded forecasts at $333.1 million, a 6.1% increase year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA of $50.1 million also significantly surpassed estimates. CEO John Wyskiel highlighted that order intake climbed 45% compared to last year, pushing the company's backlog to a seasonally strong level. He also emphasized the company's ability to pass through tariffs and maintain profitability. "Our Q1 order intake was up 45% from 2025, which pushed our backlog to a seasonally strong 3,400 units," Wyskiel stated, reflecting confidence in Blue Bird's positioning despite external pressures. Looking ahead, Blue Bird offered a mixed full-year outlook. While its revenue guidance of $1.5 billion at the midpoint came in slightly below consensus, its adjusted EBITDA forecast of $225 million was ahead of Wall Street's expectations, signaling confidence in its future profitability. Overall, we think this was a decent quarter with some key metrics above expectations.
Blue Bird is up 26.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $59.22 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $60.86 from September 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Blue Bird’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $2,534.
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